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Volodymyr Stepanets, founder of the initiative Narodnyi Starlink (which can be roughly translated into English as “People’s Starlink”), shares key insights into how satellite communications are evolving
The project NS itself is involved in refurbishing, adapting, repairing, and providing technical support, as well as procuring and upgrading satellite communication terminals from SpaceX's Starlink for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other defenders of Ukraine.
“The world has changed. I see it in the water. I feel it in the Earth. I smell it in the air. Much that once was is lost…” (J. R. R. Tolkien, The Lord of the Rings)
In recent years I have spent significant time tracking technological and product shifts in satellite communications, while also writing about my findings in the Narodnyi Starlink community.
Beginning to notice a pattern, I have decided today to create an overview of the radical changes in this market, changes that can be largely attributed to Ukraine and its experience using innovative technology in its defense against foreign aggression.
It has only been a couple of years since systems like Starlink and OneWeb popped up on the market. On the one hand, their emergence was caused by the decreasing cost and increased accessibility of enabling technologies. On another note, it can be attributed to a rising global demand for the consumption of goods and accessible communication.
These shifts are particularly evident in defense technology. Some would even say that Elon Musk’s ambitious plans for Starlink, after its effective application in the defense of Ukraine from Russian aggression, led to the opening of a Pandora's Box.
Starlink was announced a decade ago, while the service only launched six years later. What followed was a true roller coaster: no one had ever deployed a space-based communications network at this scale or speed.
No one had ever seen such rapid transformations in the satellite and space industries. No telecom operator had ever faced such unprecedented shifts in sales patterns, while no consumer had ever gained access to such affordable, high-quality satellite internet.
Starlink’s global user base, like its satellite fleet, has doubled annually for four consecutive years. Thanks to projects such as Amazon Project Kuiper and Telesat Lightspeed, the dynamics of market change will only increase. At this rate, after 2030, more than 100,000 satellites will rotate in low Earth orbits.
The space industry has seen growth across nearly every sector: operations, the availability of parts, satellite manufacturing, and launch services. It has been influenced not just by well-known or high-profile projects but also has quickly expanded to include many startups and “awakened” legacy telecom giants now reentering the race.
Even the most optimistic estimates of previous market analysts now look pessimistic. Market projections once seen as aggressive now seem conservative, as real-world growth continues to exceed expectations.
Satellite development, manufacturing, and launch, especially for low- and medium-Earth orbit constellations, have evolved into a rapidly expanding industry. Some analysts already estimate this entire market at almost 13 billion dollars and predict it to double in the next 5 years. And that’s just the broader satellite sector, not only telecom.
The range of components available for satellite platforms is growing so fast that developers can barely keep up with the documentation. More importantly, the cost of every stage from development to serial production and launching satellites is rapidly decreasing. This does not come as a surprise in an increasingly competitive market, where innovation and cost-efficiency are key drivers of progress.
Satellite communications are advancing on multiple fronts. Not just through familiar satellite terminals, but also through emerging smart technologies like IoT, Direct-to-Device (D2D), Direct-to-Cell, and 5G/6G Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN). New platforms, chipsets, and integrated software-hardware solutions are being developed across the industry to support these capabilities.
A major shift is also underway toward software-defined architectures, where communication parameters can be dynamically adjusted on both satellites and endpoint devices.
Despite Elon Musk’s ambitious plans for Starlink dominance, the rest of the private satellite telecommunications industry will also develop very rapidly. It is unlikely that anyone will be able to compete on an equal footing with Starlink for the consumer in the short term. However, over the long term, serious competition is expected from Amazon’s Project Kuiper to major Chinese-backed constellations.
Though this will not hinder the development of small developers and manufacturers because the budget of a conventional “private satellite constellation” has become more attractive and more affordable. As a result, the demand for independent LEO, MEO, and even GEO constellations is accelerating even faster.
Thus, the opportunity to create your own satellite constellation for communication, monitoring, or surveillance is quite feasible. This is evident by the recent development of startups not only in the USA, Canada, and Europe, but also in China, Turkey, and even in the aggressor country.
Recent geopolitical events have underscored the fact that diversification and sovereignty in communications infrastructure are essential for the development of communications in any country. The monopolization of certain markets in this space is already triggering strong counter-reactions.
Many people do not realize that even countries like Ukraine can implement its own sovereign satellite communication much faster and for much cheaper than ever thought… For example, this is what the founder of the new Ukrainian brand UASAT Dmytro Stetsenko thinks.
Satellite communications have traditionally been an expensive means of communication, from the moment of their emergence in the 1970s until the launch of Starlink. Military-grade satellite communications, both for ATH (At-the-Halt) and OTM (On-the-Move) categories of solutions, previously required the use of terminals costing tens and sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars.
These high prices weren’t just due to low production volumes or hand-assembled hardware. Much of the cost came from intensive R&D investments, the advanced technology involved, and the specialized expertise required to design and build such systems. Historically, large-scale production wasn’t prioritized simply because demand never justified it, until now.
Most existing military satellite communication terminals were built for the needs of past wars with very different operational demands. They weren’t designed to withstand large-scale electronic warfare and reconnaissance, deliver high-throughput connectivity, or support the kind of distributed logistics, power constraints, and field maintenance required in modern, intensive combat operations like Ukraine’s.
Production capacity and bandwidth limitations further highlight their shortcomings. For example, traditional geostationary systems and mobile compact terminals fall short of meeting the scale, agility, and price demanded by today’s Defense Forces of Ukraine.
In addition, a considerable number of OTM solution manufacturers are stuck in the universe with parabolic antennas and mechanical positioning. While these setups offer certain tactical advantages, they’re costly and complex to maintain.
The vast majority of their application scenarios involve very expensive reusable combat equipment. In the past, there was no such dilemma - where once there was no choice, today you can buy over 100 Starlink terminals for the price of a single traditional OTM unit.
This disconnect is part of a broader issue. Many legacy manufacturers still operate by the old-school rules, which are high-cost, specialized gear and slow production cycles. They are so accustomed that they still do not realize that the world has changed radically.
However, the war in Ukraine has exposed the inefficiencies of that model, demonstrating that scalable, affordable, and adaptable solutions are not only possible but necessary.
The idea that “military equals expensive” is rapidly becoming obsolete, with Ukraine’s experience of defending against Russian armed aggression redefining the economics of war.
Further, I will outline the exact shifts in this paradigm…
The path from “wedding drones”, or Mavics, to today's dominating systems took Ukraine about three years. A wide range of platforms, such as direct (USV, USG, FPV, UAV, resets, etc.) or indirect (reconnaissance, correction, confirmation, etc), are responsible for more than 90% of observed equipment and manpower losses on the battlefield.
At the same time, this rapid evolution has been matched by a sharp reduction in cost across the entire development and production cycle. For instance, FPV drones, once priced above $1,000, have become significantly more affordable, paving the way for scalable production.
The economics of war dictates its own logic. Any technical system only becomes strategically valuable once it can be mass-produced and deployed at scale, whether for strike, electronic warfare, reconnaissance and intelligence tools, or communications.
Crossing a certain price threshold is what enables that transition. In today’s conflict, scale is everything. No matter how advanced a technology is, it doesn’t offer a real strategic edge unless it can match the tempo and scope of the battlefield. Ukrainians have learned this quickly.
In the case of satellite communication terminals, Starlink dramatically lowered the cost barrier from day one. Elon Musk’s strategy of subsidizing both hardware and service pricing was meant to accelerate global adoption.
This aggressive pricing model became a key factor in enabling the rapid scale-up of Starlink use in Ukraine. Every price change or policy shift by Starlink has been closely monitored by Ukrainians, especially among volunteer networks and resellers.
Back in 2022, few could have imagined that within just three years, Ukraine’s Defense Forces would be equipped with satellite communication terminals on such a scale.
The number of Starlink units deployed today on the battlefield exceeds all earlier projections. Estimates suggest that Ukraine now operates between 150,000 and 200,000 active Starlink terminals, which is more than the rest of Europe combined.
All this has led to the formation of a certain dependence of the Defense Forces of Ukraine on Starlink. But for this issue, part of the solution lies in diversifying the Ukrainian Defense Forces with other means of communication, such as introducing alternative systems that can operate at scale.
When it comes to scaling to the level of tens and hundreds of thousands of terminals, cost becomes the defining factor. Mainly because in combat conditions, any equipment is consumable. And this is where most traditional satellite communication manufacturers fall short. Their systems are often too expensive, too complex, and too slow to scale for modern, high-intensity warfare.
Integrating satellite communications across all military levels - strategic, operational, and tactical - requires more than just hardware. It demands trained personnel with the right technical competencies.
Following the rapid expansion of Ukraine’s Defense Forces in 2022, several predictable growing pains emerged, particularly in managing and deploying advanced technology. However, by 2024 – 2025, significant reforms have begun to take shape.
These include the formation of new branches within the military, the adoption of a corps-based structure, and the overhaul of training and command systems. These changes are accelerating the development of technical expertise within the ranks, an essential step given that communication technology continues to evolve rapidly on the battlefield.
These parameters depend on many factors. Thus, both Ukraine and its adversaries have their strengths and weaknesses in this race.
Thanks to Starlink, Amazon’s Project Kuiper, OneWeb solution developers, and a growing ecosystem of satellite startups, the market now offers a wide range of modern, affordable communication terminals.
Prices range from as low as $400 to around $10,000 — much cheaper than traditional terminals. At the same time, these solutions deliver high-speed, reliable connectivity that meets the demands of today’s battlefield, where real-time data exchange, like high-quality video streaming, is a necessity.
Ukraine's experience shows that most of these high-cost solutions often do not meet today's needs, compared to more modern, affordable solutions like Starlink terminals. As alternatives continue to improve and drop in price, legacy manufacturers will inevitably face a sharp decline in demand.
Technology markets and solutions available in orbit are already allowing for rapid cost reductions in terminals that meet current battlefield needs. A key factor in this shift is the adoption of antennas with Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) technology, which eliminates the need for mechanical positioning, enabling reliable, high-speed connectivity even on the move.
Beyond SpaceX and Amazon, a wave of next-generation satellite communication terminals has already been introduced by companies like Hughes, Inster, Intellian, Kymeta, GreenerWave, CesiumAstro, All.Space, Gilat, and others.
The majority of these products were introduced just in 2024 and 2025. Once certification, distribution, and service infrastructure for these terminals are fully in place, legacy manufacturers in the high-end, traditional segment are likely to feel the impact quickly.
Announcements of new terminal models, increasing the number and capacity of operator networks, creating new distribution chains, and new production facilities on the territory of Ukraine - all this demonstrates a confident movement towards the future satisfaction of these needs.
But the enemy is not so far behind technologically, although he is still significantly behind in the scaling of such means of communication.
Ukraine's defense against aggression from its northern neighbor shows that the specifics of using satellite communications on the battlefield create many new needs, including competence management, logistics, asset management, technical support, repair/restoration capabilities, etc.
Various cybersecurity risks and the need for protection against electronic and radioelectronic warfare are also becoming critically important.
Unfortunately, only a small part of these components is currently being studied and taken into account by global manufacturers of satellite communication terminals.
Therefore, domestic manufacturers will have a more advantageous position here, which is why it is important to stimulate their emergence in Ukraine. This will also solve a significant range of integration and maintenance needs.
Thus, there are two components of satellite communications in a state of very intensive development this year - space and ground. The space sector is accelerating fast, driving down costs and making satellite communications more accessible across an expanding range of platforms.
When it comes to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, Amazon's Project Kuiper is making strong strides alongside industry leaders like Starlink and OneWeb. U.S.-based initiatives such as SpaceMobile, Globalstar, Lynk, Spire, and the well-established Iridium are also advancing, seeking new development opportunities.
Meanwhile, Canada’s Telesat Lightspeed and German-American venture Rivada are gearing up to join the competition in the next couple of years. Germany and France are also nurturing promising startups and a growing network of component manufacturers.
The EU’s IRIS² network is also in the works, though the debate over its management approach, whether more conventional or innovative, remains unresolved.
But other countries are not far behind - China alone already has at least six LEO constellations, which together already have over 200 satellites in total. Three such startups are developing rapidly in Turkey, including Fergani Space, which operates under the Baykar Technology consortium. Meanwhile, “Bureau 1440” — an aerospace company within Russia’s ICS Holding, focused on creating a low-Earth orbit satellite system for high-speed broadband — already has six satellites in orbit and is setting up mass production of satellites and terminals.
And this is not counting the variety of already in-service satellites and constellations, including the “Sphere” family of projects - “Scythian”, “Messenger” and others. And this is not a complete list of only LEO constellations - there are also medium-orbit and hybrid projects about which there are already many publications in the media.
Other countries aren't far behind either. China alone has at least six LEO constellations, with over 200 satellites already in orbit.
In Turkey, three startups, including Fergani Space under Baykar Technology, are making rapid progress. Even “Bureau 1440” from the aggressor country has launched six satellites and is moving towards mass production of satellites and terminals. This doesn’t even include the many active satellites and constellations already in service, like the “Sphere” projects, including “Scythian” and “Messenger” among others.
And this is just scratching the surface, with medium-orbit and hybrid projects also gaining attention in mass media.
The terrestrial component will not lag; as early as 2025, the cost of OTM solutions for hybrid use (several operator networks at the same time), with the ability to transmit and receive a high-quality video stream, may reach below $5,000. And the price of a similar OTM solution for a mono-operator service (LEO/MEO/GEO) will likely be fixed at $2,000 - 3,000.
New production facilities are already being established in Ukraine to support this. Additionally, models not designed for field use but priced under $1,000, similar to Starlink, will remain in high demand across Ukraine.
Of course, traditional (and costly) satellite communication systems will still have their buyers. The reason is simple: demand outpaces production capacity, and in the absence of high-speed connections, even a slower one is better than none. However, as the market becomes saturated with more affordable alternatives, manufacturers of these legacy systems will soon start to see demand decline.
Author: Volodymyr Stepanets, Founder of the Narodnyi Starlink initiative
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